Economics

Is the future of economics experimental?

Is the future of economics experimental?
The economist is often likened to the astronomer: one who is powerless to influence the forces they study and resigned to formulate their ideas based on observation alone. An ideal approach for economists would be to hold everything in a market constant, change just one variable of interest and then observe the result. Doing so is the only true proof of causality, but economists are generally considered powerless to do this. The closest they can come is when a ‘natural experiment’ is formed by chance, but these are never precise enough to truly isolate the effect of one change. Read more →
 

Preference reversal: a primer

Preference reversal experiment
If you have recently spent fifteen minutes staring at a baffling array of pie charts and percentages on my behalf, thank you. I wrote this post because I thought a small number of you may want to know what it was all about. Read more →
 

Too soon?

For a lazy political cartoon this sums up the article pretty nicely!
Open letters seem to be the standard method of communication nowadays — well, if you happen to be an economist anyway. Earlier this month, 20 of them wrote to the Sunday Times recommending that policies to reduce the UK’s burgeoning budget deficit be brought forward. Almost immediately, another open letter was sent to the Financial Times in response, this time signed by no fewer than 60, asserting this was entirely the wrong approach. This is a good example of the old “if you put two economists in a room, you get three opinions” adage, although this time we have 80 economists involved, and the stakes are somewhat higher... Read more →
 

Can’t win for losing

Roulette wheel
Today my professor for honours microeconomics said in passing that he can't believe people go to casinos, because they are just "guaranteeing they will lose." It's a fair, conventional point, but it immediately struck a chord and I've been thinking idly about it ever since. All I can give here is a total outsider's perspective, as I'm a complete novice when it comes to economics, but it seems to me to represent a few things that are wrong with conventional economic analysis. Read more →